NBA playoff picture: Warriors deadlocked with Grizzlies for No. 2 seed; Timberwolves have path out of play-in

 

The Brooklyn Nets pulverized the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday night and Kevin Durant said it was just another game. In a playoff-race sense, he was right. Nothing changed. The Nets are still pretty firmly locked into the No. 8 seed, and the Sixers are still the third seed. Philly is tied in the loss column with No. 2 Milwaukee with one head-to-head matchup remaining. 

The Phoenix Suns are the only team to have clinched a playoff spot so far.  

Reminder: The play-in format pits No. 7 vs. No. 8, with the winner earning the No. 7 seed and the loser playing the winner of the 9-10 matchup for the No. 8 seed. 

We're going to be keeping close tabs on the playoff race the rest of the way. With daily updates, we'll track current matchups, magic numbers, projected seeds, remaining schedules and tiebreaker scenarios. 

Below is where things stand entering play on Friday, March 11. 

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times and is constantly updating to reflect changing circumstances to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Phoenix Suns

Phoenix locked up a top-six seed with its win over the Heat on Wednesday. With a nine-loss lead over both No. 2 Memphis and No. 3 Golden State, the No. 1 seed in the West is a virtual lock, as is the No. 1 overall seed with a 10-loss lead over the Heat, who lead the East. 

• Projected seed: 1
• Magic number to clinch No. 1 seed: 8
• Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Season series 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Golden State leads season series 2-1 with one to play

FIGHT FOR NO. 2 SEED

2. Memphis Grizzlies 

Memphis is tied in the loss column with No. 3 Golden State, but holds the No. 2 seed by virtue of having one more win to date. If it comes down to a tiebreaker, the Grizzlies currently lead the head-to-head season series 2-1 with one matchup remaining on March 28. But this race is far from over. 

Memphis holds a two-loss lead over the No. 4 Jazz and a four-loss lead over the No. 5 Mavericks. Memphis' lead over No. 6 Denver is effectively five games as Memphis has already clinched the tiebreaker. The Grizzlies have clinched at least a play-in spot and can't end up any lower than the No. 8 seed. 

• Projected seed: 2
• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: 9
• Current first-round matchup: Wolves vs. Clippers play-in winner
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Grizzlies lead season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Memphis has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage

3. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are tied in the loss column with No. 2 Memphis with one head-to-head matchup remaining. Golden State leads No. 4 Utah by two games in the loss column. The Warriors have clinched a spot in at least the play-in and can finish no worse than the No. 9 seed. 

• Projected seed: 3
• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: 9
• Current first-round matchup: Nuggets
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Warriors trail season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Warriors lead season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage

CURRENT PLAYOFF TEAMS

4. Utah Jazz

Utah has won eight of its last 11 and trails No. 2 Memphis by just two games in the loss column. On the flip side, the Jazz hold just a two-game lead over No. 5 Dallas and No. 6 Denver with one head-to-head matchup remaining against each. 

• Projected seed: 4
• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 1
• Current first-round matchup: Mavericks
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Memphis has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Jazz trail season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Jazz lead season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage

5. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks lost by 30 to the Knicks on Wednesday to fall into a tie in the loss column with the No. 6 Nuggets. Lucky for the Mavs, they've already sealed the tiebreaker vs. Denver. Still, our SportsLine projections have Dallas ultimately falling behind Denver and ending up in the No. 6 seed. 

• Projected seed: 6
• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 1
• Current first-round matchup: Jazz
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Dallas trails season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage

6. Denver Nuggets

Denver dropped a game behind the No. 5 Mavericks with its loss to Golden State on Thursday, but our SportsLine projections still have them ultimately jumping Dallas. To stay out of the play-in, the Nuggets have just a two-game lead over the No. 7 Timberwolves, who control the tiebreaker with a 2-1 head-to-head advantage with one game to play on April 1. That could be a massive game. 

• Projected seed: 5
• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 2
• Current first-round matchup: Warriors
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Denver trails season series 2-1 with one game to play

CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS

7. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have a real shot to catch No. 6 Denver, which they trail by two in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining. At worst, they look pretty safe to end up as the No. 7 seed with a four-loss lead over the No. 8 Clippers, which means they'll get two cracks at a play-in victory to secure a playoff spot. 

• Projected seed: 7
• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 4
• Current play-in matchup: Clippers
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Timberwolves lead season series 2-1 with one game to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Clippers: L.A. has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage

8. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are pretty firm in the No. 8 spot, trailing the No. 7 Wolves by four in the loss column and leading the No. 9 Lakers by four (that lead over the Lakers is effectively five with the Clippers having clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker). 

• Projected seed: 8
• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 7
• Current play-in matchup: Timberwolves
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Clippers have clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Lakers: Clippers have clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage

9. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers took an embarrassing overtime defeat at the hands of the Rockets on Wednesday. Fortunately for them, the Pelicans also lost so the Lakers still hold a two-game lead for the No. 9 seed. The Lakers are pretty safe to at least make the play-in. They have a three-loss lead over the No. 11 Blazers, who are actively tanking, and a four-loss lead over the No. 12 Spurs. 

• Projected seed: 9
• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 13
• Current play-in matchup: Pelicans
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Clippers: Clippers have clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Pelicans: Lakers trail season series 1-0 with two matchups remaining

10. New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans trail the No. 9 Lakers by two in the loss column and lead the No. 12 Spurs by two. New Orleans still has two games left against the Spurs. Again, the Blazers are at No. 11, but the assumption is they're in tank mode and will fall out of the race. 

• Projected seed: 10
• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 14
• Current play-in matchup: Lakers
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Lakers: Pelicans lead season series 1-0 with two matchups remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 12 Spurs: Pelicans trail season series 2-0 with two matchups remaining

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

No. 11 Portland Trail Blazers: One loss back of No. 10 New Orleans, but assumed to be tanking

No. 12 San Antonio Spurs: Control own destiny to catch No. 10 New Orleans, which it trails by two with two games remaining. Win those two, and San Antonio would also win the tiebreaker with a 4-0 head-to-head advantage. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

FIGHT FOR NO. 1 SEED

1. Miami Heat

The Heat have a two-loss lead over No. 2 Milwaukee and No. 3 Philadelphia. The Heat still have one head-to-head matchup left with the Sixers. 

• Projected seed: 1
• Magic number to clinch top-four seed: 10
• Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Philadelphia: Heat lead season series 2-1 with one game to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Miami currently owns via better conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading their division)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Chicago: Heat have clinched with 3-0 head-to-head advantage and one game remaining

2. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are tied in the loss column with No. 3 Philly but have played two more games, both wins, and thus hold the higher seed at the moment via win percentage. The two teams have one head-to-head matchup remaining that will determine the tiebreaker with the season series currently tied 1-1.  

Milwaukee trails No. 1 Miami by two in the loss column. Hanging onto a top-four seed is not a lock for the Bucks. They only lead No. 4 Chicago by one game with two matchups remaining, and No. 5 Boston by two in the loss column with one matchup left. 

• Projected seed: 2
• Magic number to clinch top-four seed: 13
• Current first-round matchup: Cavaliers
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Miami currently owns via better conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading their division)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Philadelphia: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Chicago: Bucks lead season series 2-0 with two games remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Boston: Bucks trail season series 2-1 with one game remaining

3. Philadelphia 76ers

Philly is tied with the No. 2 Bucks in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining that will also determine the season tiebreaker. The Sixers lead the No. 4 Bulls by just one game but they have the tiebreaker already secured. 

Projected seed: 3

Magic number to clinch top-four seed: 14

Current first-round matchup: Toronto vs. Brooklyn play-in winner

Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Sixers trail season series 2-1 with one game to play

Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Season series tied 1-1 with one matchup remaining

Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Chicago: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage

4. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls, who were the No. 1 seed not that long ago, have faded a bit over their last 10 games and now hold just a one-game lead in the loss column over both the No. 5 Celtics (who they play once more in a game that will decide the tiebreaker) and the No. 6 Cavs, who they play two more times. Our SportsLine projection, as you'll see below, has the Bulls ultimately falling behind Boston to end up in the No. 5 seed. 

Projected seed: 5

Magic number to top-four seed: 14

Current first-round matchup: Celtics

Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Philadelphia: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage

Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Bulls trail season series 2-0 with two games remaining

Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Boston: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining

Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Cleveland: Season series tied 1-1 with two games remaining

CURRENT PLAYOFF TEAMS

5. Boston Celtics

The Celtics feel pretty safe to stay out of the play-in with a three-loss lead over the No. 7 Raptors. As mentioned above, SportsLine projections have Boston, which trails the No. 4 Bulls by one game in the loss column with one matchup remaining, ultimately jumping Chicago for the No. 4 seed. 

• Projected seed: 4
• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: 12
• Current first-round matchup: Bulls
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Celtics lead season series 2-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Chicago: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Cleveland: Celtics have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage

6. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs are tied in the loss column with the No. 5 Celtics, but Boston has already clinched the tiebreaker with no head-to-head matchups on tap the rest of the way. Cleveland leads the No. 7 Raptors by three games in the loss column, but that lead is four, effectively, as the Cavs have clinched the tiebreaker with one matchup remaining. Cleveland can still absolutely earn home-court advantage in the first round as it trails the No. 4 Bulls by one game with two head-to-head matchups remaining. 

• Projected seed: 6
• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: 14
• Current first-round matchup: Bucks
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Chicago: Season series tied 1-1 with two games remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Boston: Celtics have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Toronto: Cavs have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with game remaining

CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS

7. Toronto Raptors

The Raptors trail the No. 6 Cavs by an effective four games (Cleveland owns tiebreaker) and are staring down a play-in matchup with the No. 8 Nets, who could have Ben Simmons playing by that point. Toronto leads the Nets by three games in the loss column with a slight edge for the tiebreaker. 

• Projected seed: 7
• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 12
• Current play-in matchup: Nets
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Cleveland: Cavs have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Raptors currently hold via division winning percentage (season series tied 2-2)

8. Brooklyn Nets

The Nets beat Philly on Thursday but have likely dug too deep a hole to avoid the play-in series. As it stands, they trail the No. 7 Raptors by three games. The priority, as crazy as it sounds, is not actually falling into the lottery. Entering play on Friday, the Nets hold just a two-loss lead over the No. 11 Wizards, though Brooklyn does own the tiebreaker. 

After that, Brooklyn wants to stay above the No. 9 seed in order to get to cracks at a play-in victory. The Nets lead No. 9 Charlotte by two in the loss column with one matchup remaining. The Nets lead No. 10 Atlanta by just one in the loss column, but Brooklyn has already clinched the tiebreaker. 

• Projected seed: 8
• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 13
• Current play-in matchup: Raptors
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Toronto: Raptors currently hold via division winning percentage (season series tied 2-2)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Charlotte: Season series tied 1-1 with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Washington: Nets currently own via conference record (season series tied 2-2)

9. Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets trail the No. 8 Nets by two games in the loss column with one matchup remaining, which will decide the tiebreaker. The Hornets actually have one more loss than No. 10 Atlanta, but are currently, technically, the No. 9 seed via a slightly better win percentage. The Hawks and Hornets still have one matchup remaining that will go a long way toward potentially determining home-court advantage in the 9-10 play-in game. Our SportsLine projections have Charlotte ending up as the No. 10 seed. 

• Projected seed: 10
• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 15
• Current play-in matchup: Hawks
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Season series tied 1-1 with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Hornets trail season series 2-1 with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Washington: Hornets lead season series 2-1 with one matchup remaining

10. Atlanta Hawks

First and foremost, the Hawks are battling just to get into the play-in. They lead the No. 11 Wizards by just one game in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining. After that, they'd like to jump Charlotte for the No. 9 seed to secure home-court advantage in a potential 9-10 play-in game (Atlanta actually leads Charlotte by one in the loss column with one matchup remaining). Our SportsLine projections like Atlanta, which controls its own destiny to finish ahead of Charlotte, to end up as the No. 9 seed. 

• Projected seed: 9
• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 15
• Current play-in matchup: Hornets

• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Charlotte: Hawks lead season series 2-1 with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Washington: Hawks lead season series 2-1 with one matchup remaining

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

• No. 11 Washington Wizards: One loss back of No. 10 Atlanta with one head-to-head matchup remaining
• No. 12 New York Knicks: Three losses back of the nearest play-in spot (Charlotte)