NBA playoff picture, current matchups, projections, tiebreakers: Lakers look pretty safe to make play-in

 

The Los Angeles Lakers have lost eight of their last 10 games and are 10 games under .500, but they still feel pretty safe to at least make the play-in round. Entering play on Wednesday, the Lakers have just a two-loss lead over the No. 11 Blazers, but Portland is actively tanking and will fall out of the race soon. The threat is the No. 12 Spurs, who aren't that close, trailing the Lakers by four games in the loss column with 13 to play. 

We're going to be keeping close tabs on the playoff race with daily updates the rest of the way. Below is where things stand entering play on Wednesday, March 16.

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times and is constantly updating to reflect changing circumstances to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Phoenix Suns

Phoenix has all but locked up the No. 1 overall seed. With 13 games remaining, the Suns have an eight-loss lead over the No. 2 Grizzlies and No. 3 Warriors for the West's No. 1 seed, and a 10-loss lead over the Heat for the top overall seed. 

• Projected seed: 1
• Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Season series 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Golden State leads season series 2-1 with one to play

FIGHT FOR NO. 2 SEED

2. Memphis Grizzlies 

Memphis is deadlocked with No. 3 Golden State at 47-22. If it comes down to a tiebreaker, the Grizzlies currently lead the head-to-head season series 2-1, but there is one matchup with Golden State remaining on March 28. Memphis maintains a four-loss lead over the No. 4 Jazz and No. 5 Mavericks. 

• Projected seed: 3
• Current first-round matchup: Wolves vs. Clippers play-in winner
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Grizzlies lead season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Memphis has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage

3. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are tied with No. 2 Memphis with one head-to-head matchup remaining. Golden State leads No. 4 Utah by four games in the loss column. Our SportsLine projections have the Warriors barely edging out Memphis for the No. 2 seed. 

• Projected seed: 2
• Current first-round matchup: Nuggets
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Warriors trail season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Warriors lead season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage

CURRENT PLAYOFF TEAMS

4. Utah Jazz

Utah fell to Milwaukee on Monday night and now trails No. 2 Memphis and No. 3 Golden State by four games in the loss column. The priority now becomes hanging onto the No. 4 seed, and that's going to be a photo finish. The Jazz are tied with No. 5 Dallas with one head-to-head matchup remaining. Projections have Utah hanging on to claim a top-four seed. 

• Projected seed: 4
• Current first-round matchup: Mavericks
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Memphis has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Jazz trail season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Jazz lead season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage

5. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks went into Boston and beat the red-hot Celtics on Sunday and are now tied with the No. 4 Jazz with one head-to-head matchup remaining on March 27. Dallas has an effective three-game lead over No. 6 Denver with the tiebreaker already secured. 

• Projected seed: 5
• Current first-round matchup: Jazz
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Dallas trails season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage

6. Denver Nuggets

Denver got a big win in Philly on Monday. Combined with the Utah loss, the Nuggets are now just two games back of a top-four seed, but Dallas is squeezed in the middle at No. 5 and has already secured the tiebreaker over Denver. On the flip side, the Nuggets lead the No. 7 Timberwolves by just two games with one head-to-head matchup remaining on April 1. If Minnesota wins that game, it will also secure the tiebreaker. 

• Projected seed: 6
• Current first-round matchup: Warriors
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Denver trails season series 2-1 with one game to play

CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS

7. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have a real shot to catch No. 6 Denver, which they trail by two in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining. At worst, they look pretty safe to end up as the No. 7 seed with a five-loss lead over the No. 8 Clippers, which means they'll get two cracks at a play-in victory to secure a playoff spot. 

• Projected seed: 7
• Current play-in matchup: Clippers
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Timberwolves lead season series 2-1 with one game to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Clippers: L.A. has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage

8. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are pretty firm in the No. 8 spot, trailing the No. 7 Wolves by five in the loss column and leading the No. 9 Lakers by four (that lead over the Lakers is effectively five with the Clippers having clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker). 

• Projected seed: 8
• Current play-in matchup: Timberwolves
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Clippers have clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Lakers: Clippers have clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage

9. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are pretty much resigned to the second play-in game (they trail the No. 8 Clippers by an effective five games). The only question is whether they'll have home-court advantage in that game. At present, the Lakers lead the No. 10 Pelicans by two games with two head-to-head matchups remaining. If the Pelicans can win those two games, they would also secure the tiebreaker. The Lakers also have just a two-loss lead over the No. 11 Blazers, but they are actively tanking. The Lakers feel pretty safe to at least make the play-in with a four-loss lead over the No. 12 Spurs. 

• Projected seed: 9
• Current play-in matchup: Pelicans
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Clippers: Clippers have clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Pelicans: Lakers trail season series 1-0 with two matchups remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 12 Spurs: San Antonio currently owns via conference record (head-to-head tied 2-2, neither team leads division)

10. New Orleans Pelicans

After a loss to the Suns on Tuesday, the Pelicans trail the No. 9 Lakers by two in the loss column with two head-to-head matchups remaining, which will determine the tiebreaker, meaning New Orleans still controls its own destiny for the No. 9 seed. The Pelicans are now tied with the No. 11 Blazers in the loss column, but the assumption is that Portland is tanking and will fall out of the race. The No. 12 Spurs are the bigger threat, trailing the Pelicans by just two in the loss column with two head-to-head matchups remaining. 

• Projected seed: 10
• Current play-in matchup: Lakers
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Lakers: Pelicans lead season series 1-0 with two matchups remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 12 Spurs: Pelicans trail season series 2-0 with two matchups remaining
• OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
• No. 11 Portland Trail Blazers: Tied with No. 10 New Orleans in loss column, but assumed to be tanking
• No. 12 San Antonio Spurs: Trailing No. 10 New Orleans by two in the loss column with two head-to-head matchups remaining. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

FIGHT FOR NO. 1 SEED

1. Miami Heat

The Heat own a two-loss lead over No. 2 Milwaukee and No. 3 Philadelphia. Miami still plays the Sixers one more time. 

• Projected seed: 1
• Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Philadelphia: Heat lead season series 2-1 with one game to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading division)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Chicago: Heat have clinched with 3-0 head-to-head advantage and one game remaining

2. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks won in Utah Monday night and sit ahead of the No. 3 Sixers via win percentage (tied in loss column). The Bucks still have one matchup left with the Sixers on March 29. Milwaukee leads the No. 4 Bulls by just one in the loss column with two matchups remaining. It's worth asking whether the Bucks actually want the second seed, which could well mean a first-round matchup with Brooklyn. 

• Projected seed: 2
• Current first-round matchup: Cavaliers
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading division)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Philadelphia: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Chicago: Bucks lead season series 2-0 with two games remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Boston: Bucks trail season series 2-1 with one game remaining

3. Philadelphia 76ers

Philly is tied in the loss column with No. 2 Milwaukee with one head-to-head matchup remaining. The Sixers have a one-loss lead over No. 4 Chicago but that lead is effectively two with Philly owning the tiebreaker. The Sixers are still in the running for the No. 1 seed, down two games to Miami with one matchup remaining. Again it's worth asking if the Sixers actually want to pass the Bucks for the No. 2 seed, which might well carry with it a first-round matchup with what could be a full-strength Nets team. 

• Projected seed: 3
• Current first-round matchup: Toronto vs. Brooklyn play-in winner
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Sixers trail season series 2-1 with one game to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Season series tied 1-1 with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Chicago: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage

4. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls control their own destiny to jump Milwaukee -- one loss back with two head-to-head matchups remaining. Chicago trails No. 3 Philly by an effective two games with the Sixers owning the tiebreaker. The Bulls only have a one-loss lead over No. 4 Boston with one head-to-head remaining, which will decide the tiebreaker. Our SportsLine projection, as you'll see below, has the Bulls ultimately falling behind Boston to end up in the No. 5 seed. 

• Projected seed: 5
• Current first-round matchup: Celtics
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Philadelphia: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Bulls trail season series 2-0 with two games remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Boston: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Cleveland: Season series tied 1-1 with two games remaining

CURRENT PLAYOFF TEAMS

5. Boston Celtics

The Celtics lost ground on the No. 4 Bulls with their loss to Dallas on Sunday, but then picked the game back up with Chicago's loss to Sacramento on Monday. Boston now trails Chicago by one in the loss column with one matchup remaining, which will decide the tiebreaker. Boston's lead over No. 6 Cleveland is an effective two games as the Celtics have secured the tiebreaker. 

• Projected seed: 4
• Current first-round matchup: Bulls
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Celtics lead season series 2-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Chicago: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Cleveland: Celtics have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage

6. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are one back of the No. 5 Celtics in the loss column, but Boston has already clinched the tiebreaker so that lead is effectively two. Cleveland's more pressing concern is staying out of the play-in; with losses in two of their last three, the Cavs lead the No. 7 Raptors by just one in the loss column. Fortunately, the Cavs own the tiebreaker so that lead is effectively two. 

• Projected seed: 6
• Current first-round matchup: Bucks
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Chicago: Season series tied 1-1 with two games remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Boston: Celtics have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Toronto: Cavs have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with game remaining

CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS

7. Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have crawled within one game in the loss column of the No. 6 Cavs (Cleveland owns tiebreaker, so that lead margin is effectively two). As it stands right now, Toronto would play No. 8 Brooklyn (which it leads by three in the loss column) in the first Eastern Conference play-in game. 

• Projected seed: 7
• Current play-in matchup: Nets
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Cleveland: Cavs have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Raptors currently hold via division winning percentage (season series tied 2-2)

8. Brooklyn Nets

The Nets, fresh of Kyrie Irving's 60-point performance on Tuesday, have won four straight but haven't gained any ground on No. 7 Toronto, which leads Brooklyn by three in the loss column. The Nets' priority is holding off No. 9 Atlanta, which trails Brooklyn by just one game with one head-to-head matchup remaining. It looks pretty safe for Brooklyn to hang onto a play-in spot with a five-loss lead over the No. 11 Wizards. 

• Projected seed: 8
• Current play-in matchup: Raptors
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Toronto: Raptors currently hold via division winning percentage (season series tied 2-2)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Charlotte: Season series tied 1-1 with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Washington: Nets currently own via conference record (season series tied 2-2)

9. Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta has opened up some breathing room to at least make the play-in with a four-loss lead over No. 11 Washington. Getting greedy, Atlanta would love to jump No. 8 Brooklyn to get into the first play-in game and get two cracks at a playoff spot. Atlanta currently trails the Nets by just one in the loss column with one matchup remaining, but Brooklyn has clinched the tiebreaker. The Hawks lead No. 10 Charlotte by one in the loss column with one matchup remaining.  

• Projected seed: 9
• Current play-in matchup: Hornets
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Charlotte: Hawks lead season series 2-1 with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Washington: Hawks lead season series 2-1 with one matchup remaining

10. Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have a three-loss lead over the No. 11 Wizards with one matchup remaining. That's priority No. 1. After that, the Hornets sill have one game left against the No. 9 Hawks, who they trail by just one in the loss column. Catching the No. 8 Nets isn't out of the question; Charlotte trails Brooklyn by two games with one matchup remaining. 

• Projected seed: 10
• Current play-in matchup: Hawks
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Season series tied 1-1 with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Hornets trail season series 2-1 with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Washington: Hornets lead season series 2-1 with one matchup remaining

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

No. 11 Washington Wizards: Three losses back of No. 10 Charlotte with one head-to-head matchup remaining

No. 12 New York Knicks: Five losses back of the nearest play-in spot (Charlotte)